Photo credit: Javier Matheu on Unsplash
Through Facebook Messenger, someone sent me a photo of rates and numbers of deaths in Texas showing recent COVID-19 infection and death rates versus the previous two flu seasons. This was sent by a registered nurse, formerly involved in public health (as she reports), but she also has a bias towards far-right political leanings and is an avid Trump supporter. She states that the information being reported for deaths in the U.S. is bogus and that we should look at the information for ourselves saying that the numbers don’t add up. The screenshot of the infection and fatality rates is posted below for reference, followed by my discourse on how these numbers don’t work…
The actual current reported fatalities in Texas via the Texas Health and Human Services website shows the current fatalities at 3,735… an uptick of 623 since this screenshot above was captured.
Let’s discuss the difference between “complete” and “incomplete” (or “ongoing”) data.
You’ll notice that the data for flu was completed for the Seasonal flu season for 2018 (captured from October 2017 through October 2018) and the seasonal flu season for 2019 (captured from October 2018 through October 2019). This is known as “complete” data, which simply means that the reporting data is completed for those years. The infections and fatalities of deaths in Texas from the seasonal flu in 2018 and 2019 have an end-date to the data provided. These numbers WILL NOT change.
The reason I’ve pointed out the uptick from the fatalities shown in the screenshot versus what I found this morning on the TXHHS site (from 3,112 to now 3,735) is to show that this is “incomplete” data. Obviously, COVID-19 is an ongoing threat whereas there is no longer a threat to 2018 and 2019 flu seasons. That is to say, these numbers will continue to change as the number of infections and fatalities rise in an ongoing public health crisis. There is no definitive end to the COVID-19 pandemic. We probably won’t be shutting off the data in October 2020 (which is the end reporting date for the seasonal flu.)
The screenshot shows 250,462 positive tests for COVID-19 in Texas. Again, my review of the TXHHS site shows the number of reported infections at 307,572… an uptick of 57,110 since the screenshot was taken and shoved into my Messenger inbox.
Keeping with the same population rate, we are now at 3,067,720 tested which means only roughly 1% of the population in Texas has been screened for COVID-19. Just 1%.
We cannot conclusively say that we know how many people are infected with or how many will die from COVID-19 in Texas or throughout the U.S.
Maybe a better way to say this is that people are comparing the apple of conclusive (flu) evidence against the orange of inconclusive (COVID-19) evidence.
The tentative mortality rates of COVID-19 show that it is somewhere between 7–50 times more lethal than the seasonal flu. In countries that have flattened the curve and put the pandemic in effective remission, we are looking at 3–4% mortality rate. But, this is the United States where we only plateaued instead of flattening the curve and where we still do not have the coronavirus in check.
Other conditions to consider:
- NO VACCINE: The global community may be on the cusp of developing a vaccine, but as of this moment, we do not have a vaccine to mitigate the threat of COVID. We have annual flu vaccines.
- NO NATURAL IMMUNITY: Humans do not have a similar-strain immunity to this virus, less defense against COVID. We have a certain amount of immunity to flu.
- HIGHER MORTALITY RATES: As stated above, the actual mortality rates of COVID vs. seasonal flu is 7–50 times higher.
- HIGHER COMMUNICABILITY: COVID is 2–3 times more communicable than the seasonal flu… more infectious.
- TESTING BACKLOGS: The increased numbers of testing have backlogged the system for reporting. It is now taking anywhere from 7 days to 2 weeks to get a test result back.
- MEDICAL SUPPLY EXHAUSTION: The U.S. healthcare system is now unable to keep up with the rate of admissions and ICU beds than with the seasonal flu. Ventilators are at near capacity. PPE for frontline healthcare workers are stretched. Large cities are using refrigerated 18-wheeler cargo units for storage of deceased bodies. As we enter the seasonal flu season, this burden on healthcare will potentially make the flu even worse this year.
- HEALTHCARE WORKER SUSCEPTIBILITY: With the U.S. healthcare system buckling, the workers that we need most to fight the viral spread and infection are, themselves, getting infected and not able to work (or worse yet, they are dying because of COVID).
If you want to make it just about the numbers, then taking all of the other conditions that I’ve just mentioned out of the equation allows you to do so (making an orange into an apple in the process).
And, now, the White House has taken the reporting data out of the hands of the CDC and moved them to HHS. Let me guess… suddenly the numbers will start improving miraculously?
